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The rise of China as a global power has been a prominent feature in international politics. Simultaneously, the United States has been engaged in ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and South Asia for the past two decades, requiring a significant commitment of resources, focus, and determination. This paper investigates how third-party countries react to the United States' preoccupation with these conflicts, particularly in terms of diplomatic cooperation and alignment. We introduce a measure of US distraction and utilize network-based indicators to assess diplomatic cooperation or alignment. Our study tests the hypothesis that when the US is distracted, other states are more likely to cooperate with its principal rival, China. Our findings support this hypothesis, revealing that increased cooperation with China is more probable during periods of US distraction. However, a closer examination of state responses shows that democracies generally distance themselves from China under these circumstances, while non-democracies move closer.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available October 28, 2026
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